Suriname’s Block 52 – A Dual-Stream Energy Frontier Led by Petronas
Written by Marcel Chin-A-Lien, 12Th June, 2025.
Disclaimer: Just my own musings, that I wish to share to whom it may interest or serve.
Reserve numbers are mainly based on my own modelling, calculations and best-guess assumptions.
Only little to none has been officially published on reserves.
The AI generated image, spells Petronas a wrongly, sorry about that.
Block 52’s 2025 drilling campaign, using Noble’s Developer and Regina Allen rigs, marks a pivotal moment under the sole operatorship of Petronas.
ExxonMobil exited the license in 2024, leaving Petronas holding 100%.
Staatsolie retains a 20% farm-in option, expected to be exercised at a later stage if project economics warrant a positive FID.
1. Geological Highlights
- Block 52 contains stacked Campanian turbidite reservoirs: Sloanea, Fusaea, Roystonea.
- 3D seismic and Sloanea-2 flow tests confirm excellent reservoir deliverability (“beyond expectations”).
- Recoverable resource potential estimated at 500 MMboe, oil and gas combined.
2. Development Concept: Dual-Phase Strategy
Phase 1: Oil (FPSO – 2030)
100,000 b/d oil FPSO development starts production by 2030.
Phase 2: Gas (FLNG – 2031)
Standalone FLNG for 2–3 Tcf gas monetization from 2031 onwards.
Notably, gas profits benefit from a 10-year tax holiday granted via a negotiated gas clause to ensure economic viability.
3. Economic Model – Updated P&L Projection (US$ Billion)
| Year | Capex | Opex | Revenue | Net Cashflow | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.6 | 0.05 | 0 | -0.65 | Drilling (Sloanea-2, Fusaea-1, Roystonea) |
| 2026 | 0.8 | 0.05 | 0 | -0.85 | FEED, appraisal updates |
| 2027 | 1.4 | 0.10 | 0 | -1.50 | FID preparation |
| 2028 | 2.0 | 0.10 | 0 | -2.10 | Procurement & fabrication |
| 2029 | 2.2 | 0.15 | 0 | -2.35 | Construction & integration |
| 2030 | 1.0 | 0.20 | 1.30 | +0.10 | FPSO first oil |
| 2031 | 0.5 | 0.30 | 2.80 | +2.30 | FLNG first gas (tax holiday starts) |
| 2032 | 0.3 | 0.40 | 3.00 | +2.30 | Peak dual production |
| 2033-2035 | 0.3/year | 0.40/year | 3.00 | +2.20 | Stable operation phase |
4. Price Sensitivity Analysis
| Scenario | Oil ($/bbl) | Gas ($/mmbtu) | NPV (US$ B) | IRR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 60 | 9 | 5.1 | 15% |
| Bull Case | 75 | 12 | 7.4 | 20% |
| Bear Case | 45 | 7 | 2.7 | 9% |
| Low-Gas Case | 60 | 6 | 3.9 | 12% |
| High-Oil Case | 80 | 9 | 6.8 | 19% |
Breakeven: Oil = $42/bbl, Gas = $6/mmbtu.
5. 2025 Drilling Program Schedule
- June–November 2025: Noble Developer drills Sloanea-2, Fusaea-1, Roystonea sidetrack.
- Q4 2025: Regina Allen targets shallower leads.
- Results to drive FID preparations in 2026–27.
6. Financing & Staatsolie Option
- Total capex ~US$10B.
- Staatsolie’s 20% farm-in option remains open, likely post-FID if commerciality proves robust.
- Petronas leads financing; Staatsolie raising US$1.5–2B in capital markets for potential farm-in.
- 10-year gas tax holiday boosts FLNG returns from 2031 onward.
Conclusion
Block 52 holds promise as Suriname’s next energy frontier—early cash from oil via FPSO, followed by long-term gas export via FLNG. Fiscal stability and Petronas’ 100% operatorship set the stage for robust investment returns, with Staatsolie poised to join at FID.
References
- Petronas Suriname Updates, 2024–2025 press briefings
- Reuters Suriname Block Developments (2024)
- AP News Suriname Energy Investments (2024)
- Reuters Staatsolie Bond Raising (2025)
- CERAWeek Suriname Gas Strategy Panel (2024)
Marcel Chin-A-Lien
Petroleum & Energy Advisor | Geologist | Energy Strategist | Writer
Kind regards.
Marcel Chin-A-Lien
Petroleum and Energy Advisor
48 Years of Global, in-depth expertise, knowhow and insights.
That have generated transformative, multi billion giant fields discoveries, iconic first capitalistic new ventures in the USSR, bid rounds, added value and long term cash flow generating offshore exploration and production activities on Dutch North Sea, M&A, PSC designs, Contract negotiations.
Combined with a cross & trans discipline background of 4 petroleum post grad degrees, that fuse technical, business, commercial and management disciplines, accompanied by fluency in 7 languages in a variety of geographical, socio-cultural and business landscapes.
“ Exploration & Production integrated with Business & Commercial Development and Critical Insights “
Drs – Petroleum Geology
Engineering Geologist – Petroleum Geology
Executive MBA International Business – Petroleum – M&A
MSc International Management – Petroleum
Energy Negotiator Association of International Negotiators (AIEN)
Certified Petroleum Geologist # 5201 – American Association Petroleum Geologists – Gold standard Certification
Chartered European Geologist # 92 – European Federation of Geologists – Gold standard Certification
Cambridge Award “ 2000 Outstanding Scientists of the 20th Century ”, UK – Gold standard Award
Paris Awards “ Innovative New Business Projects “, GDF-Suez, France – Two Gold standard Awards, Paris, 2003.
Public Profile: nl.linkedin.com/pub/marcel-chin-a-lien/9/a73/547/
For Advisory Services contact:
Email: marcelchinalien@gmail.com
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