Suriname’s Block 52 – A Dual-Stream Energy Frontier Led by Petronas
Written by Marcel Chin-A-Lien, 12th June 2025 – Petroleum & Energy Advisor.
Disclaimer: My own musings, insights, vision.
Based on a grounded input from the subsurface Guyana Suriname Basin data, as far as published and available.
And from what could be expected and prognosed based on these data and insights.
I have been priviliged and intrigued to have the opportunity to closely follow the birth and unveiling of this prolific basin, since about 2000.
Really spectacular, once in a lifetime event.
Block 52’s 2025 drilling campaign, using Noble’s Developer and Regina Allen rigs, marks a pivotal moment under the sole operatorship of Petronas.
ExxonMobil exited the license in 2024, leaving Petronas holding 100%.
Question?
Why did they exit?
Because the potential and prognosis seems so “ splendid “ ??
Staatsolie retains a 20% farm-in option, expected to be exercised at a later stage if project economics warrant a positive FID.
1. Geological Highlights
- Block 52 contains stacked Campanian turbidite reservoirs: Sloanea, Fusaea, Roystonea.
- 3D seismic and Sloanea-2 flow tests confirm excellent reservoir deliverability (“beyond expectations”).
- Recoverable resource potential are estimated at probably some 500 MMboe, oil and gas combined.
2. Development Concept: Dual-Phase Strategy
Phase 1: Oil (FPSO – 2030)
100,000 b/d oil FPSO development could start production, in a favourable case, by 2030.
Phase 2: Gas (FLNG – 2031)
Standalone FLNG for, assumed for this exercise and prognosis, 2–3 Tcf gas monetization from 2031 onwards.
The whole block 52 and its surrounding area, such as Block 58, has a high gas reserves potential.
This indicated and suggested by my own Canje source rock modelling of maturation and generation of petroleum in this area. And the geographical extent and geological evolution of the mature kitchen area in Upper Tertiary times.
Notably, gas profits benefit from a 10-year tax holiday granted via a negotiated gas clause to ensure economic viability.
3. Economic Model – Updated P&L Projection (US$ Billion)
| Year | Capex | Opex | Revenue | Net Cashflow | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.6 | 0.05 | 0 | -0.65 | Drilling (Sloanea-2, Fusaea-1, Roystonea) |
| 2026 | 0.8 | 0.05 | 0 | -0.85 | FEED, appraisal updates |
| 2027 | 1.4 | 0.10 | 0 | -1.50 | FID preparation |
| 2028 | 2.0 | 0.10 | 0 | -2.10 | Procurement & fabrication |
| 2029 | 2.2 | 0.15 | 0 | -2.35 | Construction & integration |
| 2030 | 1.0 | 0.20 | 1.30 | +0.10 | FPSO first oil |
| 2031 | 0.5 | 0.30 | 2.80 | +2.30 | FLNG first gas (tax holiday starts) |
| 2032 | 0.3 | 0.40 | 3.00 | +2.30 | Peak dual production |
| 2033-2035 | 0.3/year | 0.40/year | 3.00 | +2.20 | Stable operation phase |
Economic Model Visual (US$ Billion)
4. Price Sensitivity Analysis
| Scenario | Oil ($/bbl) | Gas ($/mmbtu) | NPV (US$ B) | IRR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 60 | 9 | 5.1 | 15% |
| Bull Case | 75 | 12 | 7.4 | 20% |
| Bear Case | 45 | 7 | 2.7 | 9% |
| Low-Gas Case | 60 | 6 | 3.9 | 12% |
| High-Oil Case | 80 | 9 | 6.8 | 19% |
Price Sensitivity Visual
5. 2025 Drilling Program Schedule
- June–November 2025: Noble Developer drills Sloanea-2, Fusaea-1, Roystonea sidetrack.
- Q4 2025: Regina Allen targets shallower leads.
- Results to drive FID preparations in 2026–27.
6. Financing & Staatsolie Option
- Total capex ~US$10B.
- Staatsolie’s 20% farm-in option remains open, likely post-FID if commerciality proves robust.
- Petronas leads financing; Staatsolie raising US$1.5–2B in capital markets for potential farm-in.
- 10-year gas tax holiday boosts FLNG returns from 2031 onward.
Conclusion
Block 52 holds promise as Suriname’s next energy frontier.
Early cash from oil via FPSO, followed by long-term gas export via FLNG.
Fiscal stability and Petronas’ 100% operatorship set the stage for robust investment returns, with Staatsolie poised to join at FID.
Let us revise and update after the drilling campaign and results of 2025…
Prognosis are always a moving target, that depend on so many variables, often unpredictable, in the ever changing energy and geopolitical landscape.
References
- Petronas Suriname Updates, 2024–2025 press briefings
- Reuters Suriname Block Developments (2024)
- AP News Suriname Energy Investments (2024)
- Reuters Staatsolie Bond Raising (2025)
- CERAWeek Suriname Gas Strategy Panel (2024)
Marcel Chin-A-Lien
Petroleum & Energy Advisor | Geologist | Energy Strategist | Writer
Kind regards.
Marcel Chin-A-Lien
Petroleum and Energy Advisor
48 Years of Global, in-depth expertise, knowhow and insights.
That have generated transformative, multi billion giant fields discoveries, iconic first capitalistic new ventures in the USSR, bid rounds, added value and long term cash flow generating offshore exploration and production activities on Dutch North Sea, M&A, PSC designs, Contract negotiations.
Combined with a cross & trans discipline background of 4 petroleum post grad degrees, that fuse technical, business, commercial and management disciplines, accompanied by fluency in 7 languages in a variety of geographical, socio-cultural and business landscapes.
“ Exploration & Production integrated with Business & Commercial Development and Critical Insights “
Drs – Petroleum Geology
Engineering Geologist – Petroleum Geology
Executive MBA International Business – Petroleum – M&A
MSc International Management – Petroleum
Energy Negotiator Association of International Negotiators (AIEN)
Certified Petroleum Geologist # 5201 – American Association Petroleum Geologists – Gold standard Certification
Chartered European Geologist # 92 – European Federation of Geologists – Gold standard Certification
Cambridge Award “ 2000 Outstanding Scientists of the 20th Century ”, UK – Gold standard Award
Paris Awards “ Innovative New Business Projects “, GDF-Suez, France – Two Gold standard Awards, Paris, 2003.
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Email: marcelchinalien@gmail.com
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