Gran Morgu Field Production Forecast (2028-2048)

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Title: Gran Morgu Field Production and Depletion Modelling (2028-2048): Insights and Strategic Implications

Introduction:

The Gran Morgu Field, located within the Golden Lane—a geological region spanning the Stabroek Block in Guyana and extending to Blocks 58 and 52 in Suriname—is set to play a pivotal role in regional hydrocarbon production. This study models the field’s production and depletion history from 2028 to 2048, using data from the Liza-1 development and other analog fields. Key findings indicate that strategic depletion planning is crucial for maximizing revenue generation and operational efficiency.

Methodology:

• Geological Analog: The Liza-1 field, developed by ExxonMobil since 2019, was selected as a geological analog due to its proximity and similar characteristics.
• Data Sources: The modelling process utilized published data on Liza-1, complemented by data from international analog fields and Suriname. Recoverable reserves of 750 million barrels of high-quality, light, sweet crude oil were integral to the input data.
• Scenarios: Three scenarios were developed to capture a range of potential outcomes:
• Minimum Scenario: Reflects conservative estimates, considering lower production capacities and reserves.
• Average Scenario: Balances median production and depletion rates, offering a realistic mid-range projection.
• Maximum Scenario: Represents optimistic forecasts, assuming higher production efficiencies and reserve availability. These scenarios were chosen to provide a comprehensive view of possible production trajectories, aiding in robust strategic planning.

Results:

The modelled scenarios reveal distinct production and depletion paths for the Gran Morgu Field:

• Minimum Scenario: Estimates suggest a gradual decline in production post-2035, with cumulative production reaching approximately 60% of total reserves by 2048.
• Average Scenario: Indicates sustained plateau production until 2038, with cumulative production nearing 75% of reserves by 2048.
• Maximum Scenario: Projects extended plateau production until 2042, achieving over 90% of reserve depletion by 2048.

These insights underscore the importance of strategic depletion planning to optimize field performance and revenue generation.

Conclusion:

Understanding the production and depletion dynamics of the Gran Morgu Field is essential for strategic planning and sustainable resource management. The modelled scenarios highlight the need for proactive depletion strategies to maximize operational efficiency and revenue. Stakeholders should prioritize these findings to inform decision-making and ensure long-term success in field development.

The incorporated graph that illustrates the modelled scenarios. This enhances comprehension and provides a clear visual representation of the potential production trajectories and depletion rates of Gran Morgu.

Regards, Marcel Chin-A-Lien

Marcel Chin-A-Lien

Petroleum and Energy Advisor

48 Years of Global, in-depth expertise, knowhow and insights.

That have generated transformative, multi billion giant fields discoveries, iconic first capitalistic new ventures in the USSR, bid rounds, added value and long term cash flow generating offshore exploration and production activities on Dutch North Sea, M&A, PSC designs, Contract negotiations.

Combined with a cross & trans discipline background of 4 petroleum post grad degrees, that fuse technical, business, commercial and management disciplines, accompanied by fluency in 7 languages in a variety of geographical, socio-cultural and business landscapes. 

“ Exploration & Production integrated with Business & Commercial Development and Critical Insights “

Drs – Petroleum Geology
Engineering Geologist – Petroleum Geology

Executive MBA International Business – Petroleum – M&A
MSc International Management – Petroleum

Energy Negotiator Association of International Negotiators (AIEN)

Certified Petroleum Geologist # 5201 – American Association Petroleum Geologists – Gold standard Certification
Chartered European Geologist # 92    – European Federation of Geologists – Gold standard Certification

Cambridge Award  “ 2000 Outstanding Scientists of the 20th Century ”, UK – Gold standard Award
Paris Awards  “ Innovative New Business Projects “, GDF-Suez, France – Two Gold standard Awards, Paris, 2003.

Public Profile: nl.linkedin.com/pub/marcel-chin-a-lien/9/a73/547/

For consultancy and advisory services, please contact via:

Email: marcelchinalien@gmail.com

Post data, added at 30 april 2025:

GranMorgu, the country’s first deepwater oil project, is now underway — led by TotalEnergies and Apache Corporation, with Suriname’s state oil company Staatsolie Maatschappij Suriname N.V holding the option for a 20% stake.

Located 150 km off the coast in Block 58, the project will develop over 750 million barrels of recoverable resources from the Sapakara and Krabdagu fields.

Valued at $10.5 billion, GranMorgu is expected to start production in 2028 via an FPSO with a daily capacity of 220,000 barrels.

To secure its share, Staatsolie Maatschappij Suriname N.V raised $515.8 million through an oversubscribed bond issuance in March. Additional funding will come from reserves and international lenders.