Gran Morgu Is Not a Number

Why GLIAG looks beyond the headlines: P90-P50-P10

≈760M bbl recoverable: Gran Morgu · Block 58 — a range, not a fixed quantity

Marcel Chin-A-Lien — Petroleum & Energy Advisor · Founding Partner, GLIAG – Chief Architect – 20 June 2026

• Reserve estimates represent a range of possible outcomes, not a fixed quantity, and must be evaluated within the context of geological and operational uncertainty.
• Project value is driven by economics as much as reserves; costs, prices, production performance and cash flow ultimately determine what can be created from the resource.
• For decision-makers, the most meaningful view of Gran Morgu combines reserves, uncertainty and economics to assess potential value, risk and long-term outcomes.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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The Problem With Headlines

Every major petroleum project eventually becomes a headline. These figures are important, but they do not tell the whole story.

760M bbl – RECOVERABLE RESOURCES

US$10.5B – INVESTMENT

220,000 bpd – PEAK PRODUCTION

When most people read about Gran Morgu, they see a reserve number and naturally assume it represents a fixed amount of future wealth waiting offshore.

Petroleum professionals see something different: recoverable reserves, uncertainty and economics, all interacting to create a range of possible outcomes.

Public reporting often refers to approximately 760 million barrels of recoverable resources.

In reality, that estimate depends on assumptions about reservoir performance, recovery efficiency, production rates, facility uptime, operating costs, oil prices and field life.

The reserve number is therefore not the destination — it is the starting point for understanding the project.

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What The Visual Shows

The visual presents Gran Morgu through three connected concepts.

01 — GEOLOGY

Recoverable

Oil expected to be produced through wells, subsea systems, reservoir management and the Gran Morgu FPSO, over a project life running roughly from 2028 to around 2053. Not the same as oil in place — an engineering expectation, not simply a geological fact.

02 — CONFIDENCE

Uncertainty

Petroleum professionals describe outcomes using P90, P50 and P10. The public often sees a single number; engineers evaluate a range. This doesn’t make the estimate unreliable — it reflects that future performance can’t be known with certainty.

03 — VALUE

Economics

Cash flow, payout, costs, oil prices and economic limits all shape outcomes.

A barrel offshore is not the same as a dollar in the treasury — between the reservoir and national wealth lies a long economic journey.

01 – What is recoverable?

GRAN MORGU THROUGH A DIFFERENT LENS

02 – How sure are we?

03 – Is it worth it?

These are the same questions investors, lenders, engineers, project managers and governments ask before committing billions of dollars to a development.

The result is a more complete view of Gran Morgu.

Not as a single reserve figure, but as a large offshore development where geology, engineering and economics interact over decades.

“Reserves are a range with a price tag.”

THE REAL INSIGHT

Why This Matters For Suriname

Gran Morgu is more than an offshore development — it is one of the largest investment projects in Suriname’s history, with implications across the economy:

Public revenues

Employment

Local content

Supply chains

Technology transfer

Infrastructure development

Long-term economic planning

Understanding uncertainty is therefore not pessimism, it is good planning.

The objective is not to reduce confidence in the project. The objective is to improve understanding of the project.

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The GLIAG Perspective

At GLIAG, we believe that numbers should be interpreted, not merely repeated.

A headline may tell us how many barrels are estimated.

A deeper analysis asks what assumptions support the estimate, what uncertainties surround the project, and what economics underpin the development.

These questions rarely appear in headlines, yet they are often more important than the headline itself.

That is where GLIAG seeks to contribute.

Not by replacing the facts, but by helping readers understand what the facts actually mean.

Because in the energy industry, information is valuable.

But insight is what creates understanding.

GLIAG

About GLIAG

GLIAG — Golden Lane Investments Advisory Group

Geology, Learning, Intelligence & Advisory Group.

Is an independent strategic research and advisory initiative focused on energy, petroleum systems, critical resources, economic development and long-term national value creation. Focussed on the Guyana Suriname Super Basin, primarily Suriname and Guyana.

PREPARED BY MARCEL CHIN-A-LIEN — PETROLEUM & ENERGY ADVISOR, FOUNDING PARTNER, GLIAG