Written by Marcel Chin-A-Lien, Petroleum & Energy Advisor – 12th June, 2025

Disclaimer: my own musings, prognosis.

A Deep-Water Giant in the Making

Some 500 million barrels of light crude oil, most probably, lie beneath the waves, ready to transform energy markets.

Block 52, following Block 58 of TotalEnergies, is envisioned to represent the next frontier in offshore oil development.

Block 52 contains both oil, for a possible FPSO.

And gas, for a possible FLNG.

Here I present a modelling and results of a (possible, envisioned…) “ Sloanea-Fusaea Oil Field “, modelled after the proven success of Guyana’s Liza-1 field.

The Subsurface Story

In the depths of Switi Sranan’s oceans, where sunlight never penetrates and pressure reaches crushing extremes, geological forces have been at work for millions of years. 

Block 52 sits in these profound depths, harboring a treasure trove that could reshape regional energy dynamics.

Using Liza-1 field parameters as my analog – one of the most successful deepwater discoveries of the 21st century in nearby Guyana, Golden Lane area— I have constructed a comprehensive reservoir model that reveals the true potential of this offshore giant.

Why Liza-1 as an Analog? 

The Liza field in Guyana’s Stabroek Block has demonstrated exceptional performance, producing nearly 130,000 barrels per day from similar geological conditions.

Its proven reservoir characteristics provide the perfect (?) blueprint for modelling Block 52’s development.

The Numbers That Matter

Some 500M (??)

BARRELS IN PLACE

100K

PEAK BBL/DAY

25

PRODUCTION YEARS

32°

API GRAVITY

These aren’t just numbers.

They represent a carefully orchestrated symphony of geological perfection.

The 28% porosity and 1,200 millidarcy permeability create ideal conditions for sustained production, while the 32° API gravity ensures premium light crude quality that commands top market prices.

Three Pathways to Success

My reservoir modeling employs sophisticated Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) to project three distinct production scenarios:

🔴 Conservative Scenario (P90)

The minimum case delivers 95,000 bbl/day peak production with a 45% recovery factor. Even in this conservative projection, Block 52 generates substantial returns over its 25-year lifespan.

🔵 Base Case Scenario (P50)

Our most likely scenario achieves 100,000 bbl/day production with 4-year plateau duration. This 50% recovery factor represents the statistical median outcome based on analog field performance.

🟢 Optimistic Scenario (P10)

The maximum potential unlocks 110,000 bbl/day with extended plateau production. A 55% recovery factor in this scenario demonstrates the field’s exceptional upside potential.

Technical Excellence in Modeling

Hyperbolic Decline Curves:  My model employs industry-standard hyperbolic decline equations, incorporating variable decline rates and economic limits for each scenario.

Reservoir Simulation: Based on proven Liza-1 parameters including 1,525m water depth, 5,500 ft reservoir depth, and 180°F formation temperature.

Production Optimization: FPSO capacity modeling at 120,000 bbl/day with integrated gas handling and water injection capabilities.

The beauty of reservoir engineering lies in its marriage of geological understanding and mathematical precision.

Every curve in our production forecast represents millions of years of geological processes.

Now unlocked through human ingenuity and cutting-edge technology.

Strategic Implications

Block 52 is not just another oil field.

It is a strategic energy asset, that could fundamentally alter regional supply dynamics.

With production spanning from 2030 to 2055, almost lined up with the Block 58 Gran Morgu Field production starting 2028 on, this field offers:

• Energy Security: 25 years of stable production in an increasingly volatile world
• Economic Impact: Billions in revenue generation and job creation
• Technological Innovation: Pushing the boundaries of deepwater development
• Environmental Responsibility: Modern extraction techniques with minimal ecological impact

The Future Flows Here

Block 52 represents more than hydrocarbon reserves.

It embodies the convergence of geological opportunity, technological capability, and strategic vision.

As Switi Sranan stands on the threshold of a new era in energy development, this deepwater giant awaits its moment to transform potential into prosperity.

The question is not whether Block 52 will succeed.

It is how spectacularly it will exceed expectations?

Let’s wait and see the (…positive) results of the coming 2025 exploration wells.

About myself?

Kind regards.

Marcel Chin-A-Lien

Petroleum and Energy Advisor

48 Years of Global, in-depth expertise, knowhow and insights.

That have generated transformative, multi billion giant fields discoveries, iconic first capitalistic new ventures in the USSR, bid rounds, added value and long term cash flow generating offshore exploration and production activities on Dutch North Sea, M&A, PSC designs, Contract negotiations.

Combined with a cross & trans discipline background of 4 petroleum post grad degrees, that fuse technical, business, commercial and management disciplines, accompanied by fluency in 7 languages in a variety of geographical, socio-cultural and business landscapes. 

“ Exploration & Production integrated with Business & Commercial Development and Critical Insights “

Drs – Petroleum Geology
Engineering Geologist – Petroleum Geology

Executive MBA International Business – Petroleum – M&A
MSc International Management – Petroleum

Energy Negotiator Association of International Negotiators (AIEN)

Certified Petroleum Geologist # 5201 – American Association Petroleum Geologists – Gold standard Certification
Chartered European Geologist # 92    – European Federation of Geologists – Gold standard Certification

Cambridge Award  “ 2000 Outstanding Scientists of the 20th Century ”, UK – Gold standard Award
Paris Awards  “ Innovative New Business Projects “, GDF-Suez, France – Two Gold standard Awards, Paris, 2003.

Public Profile: nl.linkedin.com/pub/marcel-chin-a-lien/9/a73/547/

For Advisory Services contact:

Email: marcelchinalien@gmail.com

For next sunday, Father’s Day?

On the Art of Assumption: A Socratic Reflection
“The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.” — Socrates
In the depths of my modeling lies a profound truth that Socrates himself would have cherished:

Every assumption is both a limitation and a liberation. When we declare that Block 52 mirrors the subsurface conditions of Liza-1, we engage in an ancient philosophical dance—the delicate balance between the known and the unknowable.

What is an assumption but a bridge across the chasm of uncertainty?
Consider this:

Socrates taught that wisdom begins with acknowledging our ignorance. In subsurface-earth sciences and reservoir engineering, we embrace this paradox daily.

We cannot drill every square meter of the seafloor, cannot peer directly into geological formations laid down millions of years ago.

Yet through the elegant art of assumption—grounded in empirical observation, seasoned, matured with experience, and tempered by humility, we can transform ignorance into insight.

The Liza-1 analog becomes our teacher, whispering secrets of porosity and permeability across the oceanic divide.
Socrates would have marveled at this methodological honesty:

We openly declare our assumptions not as weaknesses, but as the very foundations upon which rational inquiry stands.

“I assume, therefore I can proceed to know.” Each assumption in our Block 52 model is a calculated leap of faith—informed, deliberate, and transparent.

Is it not better to assume wisely than to remain paralyzed by uncertainty?
In the end, our assumptions are not mere conveniences—they are philosophical statements about how we understand the world.

When we assume similar subsurface conditions between Liza-1 and Block 52, we assert that nature, in her infinite complexity, still follows patterns we can discern, analogies we can draw, and wisdom we can extract from experience.

The examined assumption, like the examined life, is worth living—and modeling.
For in the realm of reservoir engineering, as in philosophy, our greatest discoveries emerge not from what we know with certainty, but from what we dare to assume with wisdom.