By Marcel Chin-A-Lien, Petroleum & Energy Advisor; 12th June, 2025

Disclaimer: own musings, independent opinion, insight and vision.

1. Introduction

Following ExxonMobil’s 2024 exit, Petronas now holds 100% of the offshore Block 52 license in Suriname.

Staatsolie retains a 20% farm-in option, likely to be exercised upon a competitive Final Investment Decision (FID).

A two-well exploration and appraisal campaign, contracted with Noble Corporation for 2025, will critically determine the future of oil and gas development here.

Notably, Petronas benefits from a 10-year tax holiday for gas projects under a newly negotiated gas clause, crucial to project viability.

2. Geological Setting and Development Concepts

Block 52’s potential lies in both oil-prone and gas-rich accumulations.

The oil development is planned via FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading), targeting an initial plateau of 100,000 bbl/d from 2030.

Meanwhile, a potential FLNG (Floating LNG) project could monetize 2–3 Tcf of gas starting 2031+, leveraging the tax holiday for economic enhancement.

3. Production Forecasts and Decline Profiles

3.1 Oil FPSO DCA Production Profile (2030–2055)

Description: Modeled oil production decline profiles for FPSO in Block 52 (plateau: 100,000 bbl/d from 2030):

• Minimum Decline (Harmonic): Blue, dashed line — declines slowly to ~45,000 bbl/d by 2055.
• Average Decline (Hyperbolic): Red, bold line — base case; declines to ~20,000 bbl/d by 2055.
• Maximum Decline (Exponential): Green, dotted line — fastest depletion to ~5,000 bbl/d by 2055.

All scenarios suggest significant depletion and low output by 2055.

3.2 Gas FLNG DCA Production Profile (2031–2056)

Description: Projected gas production decline profiles for FLNG (plateau: 600 MMscf/d from 2031):

• Minimum Decline (Harmonic): Blue, dashed line — ~300 MMscf/d by 2056.
• Average Decline (Hyperbolic): Red, bold line — ~100 MMscf/d by 2056.
• Maximum Decline (Exponential): Green, dotted line — ~30 MMscf/d by 2056.

Significant production tapering after 25 years impacts late-cycle gas revenues.

4. Revenue Generation Model

Description: Combined annual revenues from FPSO oil and FLNG gas projects:

• Oil Revenue (FPSO): Red solid line — peaks at ~$2.3 billion/year (2031–2040).
• Gas Revenue (FLNG): Blue solid line — grows to ~$1.2 billion/year post-2031 (price: $6/MMBtu).

Total project revenue declines sharply after 2045 as both resources deplete toward zero by 2055.

5. Economic Model Summary

Description: Key financial metrics per development year:

Year	Capex (MMUSD)	Opex (MMUSD)	Revenue (MMUSD)	Free Cash Flow (MMUSD)
2030	500	0	0	-500
2031	400	0	0	-400
2032	200	50	1400	1150
2033	100	60	1350	1190
2034	50	70	1250	1130
2035	0	80	1150	1070

Positive free cash flows start post-2032 with strong margins until 2040.

6. Price Sensitivity Analysis

Description: Project sensitivity to oil and gas prices:

Oil Price (USD/bbl)	Gas Price (USD/MMBtu)	NPV (MMUSD)	IRR (%)
60	5	500	12
70	6	800	18
80	7	1100	24

Project economics improve significantly with higher commodity prices, particularly oil.

7. Conclusion

Petronas’ Block 52 offshore Suriname development hinges on successful 2025 drilling outcomes.

Oil via FPSO and gas via FLNG could both technically and economically feasible.

A positive FID will likely attract Staatsolie’s 20% participation.

The 10-year gas tax holiday is pivotal to the FLNG’s long-term viability.

About the Author

Marcel Chin-A-Lien is a Petroleum & Energy Advisor with 48 years of global experience in petroleum geology, energy finance, and strategic advisory. His work spans frontier basins, offshore developments, and corporate strategy across multiple continents.

Email: marcelchinalien@gmail.com

References

• Petronas Annual Report 2024
• Staatsolie Upstream Fiscal Terms 2023
• Global Gas Market Outlook (Wood Mackenzie, 2023)
• Noble Corporation Fleet Update 2025
• Suriname Energy Summit Proceedings 2024